A method to study the impact of climate change on variability of river flow: an example from the Guadalupe River in Texas

作者：Y-S,Xu(Yongsheng Xu), Z-L, Yang(Zong Liang Yang)

出版物：Climatic Change 卷：113 期：3-4 页965-979

DOI：10.1007/s10584-011-0366-4　 出版年份：August 2012

摘要：This work introduced a method to study river flow variability in response to climate change by using remote sensing precipitation data, downscaled climate model outputs with bias corrections, and a land surface model. A meteorological forcing dataset representing future climate was constructed via the delta change method in which the modeled change was added to the present-day conditions. The delta change was conducted at a fine spatial and temporal scale to contain the signals of weather events, which exhibit substantial responses to climate change. An empirical transformation technique was further applied to the constructed forcing to ensure a realistic range. The meteorological forcing was then used to drive the land surface model to simulate the future river flow. The results show that preserving fine-scale processes in response to climate change is a necessity to assess climatic impacts on the variability of river flow events.

徐永生，1970年生，博士，研究员，博士生导师。美国地球物理学会, 美国气象学会会员，美华海洋大气学会会员。1997年获得复旦大学物理学硕士学位；2006年获得美国罗德岛大学物理海洋学博士学位。曾任2007年美国地球物理学会会议分会主席。2011年12月作为中科院引进国外杰出人才回国工作。回国前在美国加州理工学院NASA喷气推进实验室从事卫星海洋学，海洋遥感，海洋动力学等方面的研究工作。